Calculator

Break-Even Win Rate Calculator

Convert a payoff ratio into the win rate at which gross expected value is mathematically zero.

No live market data · No recommendation

Uses only the values above

Formula

Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk)

The formula is displayed so the result can be checked independently. PreBreakout does not use a hidden scoring model on this page.

Worked hypothetical example

At a hypothetical reward-to-risk ratio of 2.0, the gross break-even win rate is 33.33%.

Important: the numbers are fictional and are not associated with a security, issuer or current market price.

What this calculator does not tell you

  • This is a theoretical gross break-even rate.
  • Fees, slippage, taxes and changing payoff sizes can raise the real break-even threshold.
  • The calculation does not tell you what win rate a setup is likely to achieve.

Market execution can differ from arithmetic inputs because of spreads, gaps, slippage, order types, broker constraints and other factors. This tool does not attempt to model those effects unless an input explicitly asks for a value.

How to use it for learning

Change one input at a time and observe how the result changes. This is especially useful for understanding sensitivity: wider stop distance changes position-size arithmetic, a taller pattern changes a measured-move result, and a larger reward-to-risk ratio changes the theoretical break-even win rate. The exercise is about the formula, not about identifying a trade.

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